摘要：今天要跟大家分享的雅思閱讀素材題目是沒有過去的人2，正文都做了貼心的注解，并挑出了經(jīng)典句式跟觀點(diǎn)，我們在雅思寫作中可以學(xué)習(xí)借鑒。一起來看看吧！

作為雅思考生，我們讀外刊要有一定的目的性，不僅僅是為了擴(kuò)大我們的閱讀面，還要有意識(shí)地針對雅思考試，提高自己的水平。希望大家不幫是看源文內(nèi)容，更要對文中注釋加以學(xué)習(xí)消化，希望對大家有幫助！

To understand why this matters, consider the findings from social science about‘recency bias’, which describes the tendency to assume that future events will closely resemble recent experience. It’s a version of what is also known as the availability heuristic: the tendency to base your thinking disproportionately on whatever comes most easily to mind. It’s also a universal psychological attribute.If the last few years have seen exceptionally cold summers where you live, for example, you might be tempted to state that summers are getting colder– or that your local climate may be cooling. In fact, you shouldn’t read anything whatsoever into the data. You would need to take a far, far longer view to learn anything meaningful about climate trends. In the short term, you’d be best not speculating at all – but who among us can manage that?

為了理解這個(gè)問題的重要性，需要考慮社會(huì)科學(xué)中有關(guān)“近因偏差”(recencybias，又稱近因效應(yīng))的研究發(fā)現(xiàn)。近因偏差是指：人們在判斷事物發(fā)展趨勢時(shí)，會(huì)認(rèn)為未來事件將會(huì)和近期體驗(yàn)高度類似。這可以說是某種“可利用性法則”(availability heuristic)——不恰當(dāng)?shù)匾宰钊菀渍J(rèn)知的信息來作為思考的基礎(chǔ)。這還是一種普遍的心理學(xué)特征。舉例來說，如果在你居住的地方，過去幾年的夏季氣溫都很低，那么你可能會(huì)認(rèn)為夏季氣候正在變得更冷——或者說你當(dāng)?shù)氐臍夂蛘谧兝洹５牵悴粦?yīng)該只根據(jù)少量數(shù)據(jù)分析長期趨勢。你需要采取長遠(yuǎn)視角，才能認(rèn)識(shí)真正有意義的氣候趨勢。短期內(nèi)，最好不進(jìn)行任何猜測。不過，我們之中又有誰能真正做到這點(diǎn)呢?

【大作文萬用句式】

To understand why this matters, consider …為了理解這個(gè)問題的重要性，需要考慮……

… – but who among us can manage that?……不過，我們之中又有誰能真正做到這點(diǎn)呢?

【經(jīng)典句式】

the findings from … ……的發(fā)現(xiàn)

social science社會(huì)科學(xué)

tendency趨勢

assume假設(shè)

future event未來事件

closely resemble近似

version版本

base… on … 把……基于……之上

disproportionately不成比例地;過度偏重地

whatever comes most easily to mind最容易認(rèn)知的信息

universal普遍的;統(tǒng)一的

psychological attribute心理特征

年代/地點(diǎn) see … 見證

exceptionally極其地;卓越的

tempt誘導(dǎo);吸引

read into sth曲解;牽強(qiáng)附會(huì)

take a far, far longer view采取長遠(yuǎn)視角

climate trend氣候趨勢

in the short term短期內(nèi)

speculate猜測

The same tends to be true of most complex phenomena in real life: stock markets,economies, the success or failure of companies, war and peace, relationships,the rise and fall of empires. Short-term analyses aren’t only invalid– they’re actively unhelpful and misleading. Just look at the legions of economists who lined up to pronounce events like the 2009 financial crisis unthinkable right until it happened. The very notion that valid predictions could be made on that kind of scale was itself part of the problem.

現(xiàn)實(shí)生活中大部分復(fù)雜事物的現(xiàn)象也是如此：股票市場、經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展、企業(yè)的成功與失敗、戰(zhàn)爭與和平、戀愛、帝國的崛起和衰落等等。短期分析不僅不正確、毫無益處，還會(huì)產(chǎn)生誤導(dǎo)。只要看看這個(gè)例子就能知道這一點(diǎn)：就在2009年全球金融危機(jī)襲來的時(shí)候，還有那么多經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家信誓旦旦地宣稱這一事件不會(huì)發(fā)生。認(rèn)為根據(jù)那種短期時(shí)間尺度的數(shù)據(jù)就能做出正確的預(yù)測，這種想法本身就有很大的問題。

（轉(zhuǎn)第二頁）

               
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